Global total air passenger demand increased by 2.1%, year-on-year in March, the global representative body for the airline industry, the International Air Transport Association (IATA), has reported. Domestic demand rose by 6.5%, although international demand declined by -0.6%. year-on-year, total capacity declined by -1.7%, and international capacity fell by -6.2%, but domestic capacity increased by 5.6%. The total load factor was 83.6%, which was a 3.1 percentage point (ppt) increase, year-on-year, while the international load factor was 84.1% (up 4.7 ppt, year-on-year) and the domestic load factor was 83% (an increase of 0.7 ppt, year-on-year).

“Demand for air travel continued to grow in March despite disruptions in the Middle East,” pointed out IATA director-general Willie Walsh. “The nearly 61% decline in international traffic by carriers in the Middle East did, however, restrain global growth to 2.1%. Outside of the Middle East demand grew by 8%.”

The region which saw the strongest year-on-year increase in total passenger demand in March was Africa, with a jump of 20.6%. It was followed by the Asia-Pacific, at 11.5%, and then Latin America and the Caribbean (8.4%), Europe (7.5%), and North America (2.3%). The Middle East, unsurprisingly, saw a collapse of -58.6%.

In terms of international demand, Africa again saw the strongest year-on-year growth, at 19.2%. However, second place was taken by Latin America and the Caribbean, at 12.1%, followed by the Asia-Pacific at 11.5%. Then came Europe (7.7%) and North America (3.7%). The Middle East (as Walsh noted above) suffered a crash of -60.8%.

In terms of domestic air passenger demand, the six biggest markets were Australia, Brazil, China, India, Japan and the US. Together they accounted for 79.4% of total domestic air travel demand. In March, the country that saw the greatest year-on-year rise in demand was China, at 13.7%, followed by Brazil, at 10.8%. Then came Australia (8.8%) and the US (1.4%). India recorded a decline of -0.2%, and Japan, a fall of -1.4%.

“Everybody’s watching what’s happening with jet fuel—both supply and pricing,” highlighted Walsh. “On the supply side, over the next months we could see shortages in parts of the world with high dependence on supplies from the Gulf, especially Asia and Europe. And the extraordinarily high cost of jet fuel is increasingly being reflected in ticket prices. While this has not impacted March traffic or forward bookings to date, it remains to be seen at what point high prices could start to shift passenger behaviour. So far, the summer is shaping up to be a normally busy time for travel. That’s positive news, but airline resilience is being tested and stabilizing the supply and price of fuel is crucial. In the meantime, it’s important for regulators to be prepared to grant airlines some flexibility on slots considering the extraordinary circumstances of airspace capacity restrictions and potential fuel rationing.”